I think Cher Lloyd is now a racing certainty to win X-Factor.

I think this because Facebook told me so.

It seems that the marketing and management bods at Syco (Simon Cowell’s label) have been busy setting up Facebook accounts for the remaining acts in the competition. Of the eight remaining six have accounts – Katie does not due to the torrent of abuse it would receive, and Wagner doesn’t because… well because he’s Wagner.

I stumbled across these this morning whilst fulfilling a sudden need to get a double hit of X-Factor and social media. I found Rebecca Ferguson’s account – who is my favourite for what it is worth. It seemed very generic and clearly daily posts pumped out of Psycho. The URL was www.facebook.com/rebeccafergusonmusic. She had 97k fans when I checked. Not sure whether this was high or not I checked if the syntax worked for the remaining artists (e.g. mattcardlemusic, marybyrnemusic et.). It did and I listed the amount of fans they each had.

Cher Lloyd has far, far more than anyone else. Over a million in fact.

The bookies have Matt Cardle to win, followed by Rebecca and then One Direction.

However, based on Facebook I’m going to make the following guess for the result and order of elimination:

8^th Katie Waissel - page not found

7^th Wagner - page not found

6^th Paije – 19,906

5^th Rebecca Ferguson - 96,845

4^th Mary Byrne - 97,660

However its likely to be Rebecca 4^th, Mary 5^th Katie 6^th  Wagner 7^th and Paije 8^th

I say that as Rebecca will always win a sing off with Mary based on the judges votes. Anyone will beat Wagner in a sing-off and they’ll keep Katie until she’s contractually obliged to sign for Psycho (6^th) as they allegedly bought her out of an existing deal.

The final

3^rd One direction - 164,673

2^nd Matt Cardle - 343,137

Winner: Cher - 1,086,458

Issues

Correlation between “Likes” and actual voting.

I’m not saying there is completely. Its just the lead that I think makes it statistically relevant. Three times as many votes as hat boy Matt Cardle.

Voting is a moveable feast on X-Factor. Last year Daniel led for the first three weeks in the vote and then dropped away. Joe only came through as the winner once it was down to the final 4-5.

Bookies having the inside track

Again, its moveable in terms of votes. What is true now may not be in two weeks in terms of Saturday night votes. Where will all of Wagner’s votes go, and Mary’s and if the above is correct, Rebecca’s?

Media noise

Cher gets more media attention than the others as she’s brattish and there is gossip that goes with her, hence more interaction with her online. There would definitely be a relationship here, however despite her manifest diva nature and alliance with the fading start quality of Cheryl Cole, she is no Katie Waissel and seems to have the publics backing.

Make of it what you will. I think she’s a good bet to win.

Particularly when you can get her at 10/1.